MINDANAO POWER SITUATIONER

Mindanao Power Situation:
COAL POWER, A Better Choice?

By:
HIO TIAO W. LIM


About the Author: The Author is a Davao City based, practicing CPA, with a 30 year background exposure in the Electric Power Industry, an active Intervenor in Energy Regulatory Commission hearings conducted in the Mindanao Field Office in Davao City.


The Current Situation

The Mindanao Grid as of JANUARY 7, 2011 a dependable capacity of 1374 MW. Of which 717 MW is Hydro Power Plants, 210 MW is coal power plants, 100MW is Geothermal Power Plants, and 347 MW is fuel Oil power plants.

The Current Demand of 1044MW represents the normal load curve for January 2011
There is still a comfortable reserve of 285 MW. figures are NGCP postings at www.ngcp.ph/so.asp)


Forward looking scenario into 2014-15

The Peak Demand in the Mindanao Grid historically happens in the Month of December, unlike in Luzon where the Peak Demand occurs in the summer months of April and May.

The Peak Demand Increase annually ranges from 50 MW to 80 MW depending on the economic condition, and of course the weather conditions attendant therein which is attributable to Climate Change.

Given this scenario, the Reserve Margin will be wiped out in around three years or at the start of year 2014.

But the Department of Energy says otherwise, the DOE website indicates that of the 1,929 MW installed capacity as of 2009, there is a dependable capacity of 1, 697 MW, given some degree of degradation, there is still a comfortable MW of dependable capacity.
However the sale of the Power Barges 117 and 118 to the Aboitiz Power’s Therma Marine Inc. has depleted the generation capacity directly under the control of the National Power Corporation /. PSALM by 200 MW.

It is for this reason that the NAPOCOR/PSALM advised all its customers in the Mindanao Grid to expect power supply curtailment starting January 2011 as there is already a FORECASTED GENERATION DEFICIENCY for the whole year of 2011.

However, AMRECO and the Department of Energy disputes this Forecasted Generation Deficiency, (see attached position paper of AMERCO)


The Choices Mindanao Power Consumers have:

Generate your own back up power in case of power supply outages: Using gasoline fueled generators will add up to P 60.00 per kwh in residential customers, diesel fed back up generators would use up P 12.00 – P 20.00 per kwh in fuel cost alone.

Buy Solar Panels for home use, buy rechargeable lanterns and fans, for residential users.

Stop operations for the day, for manufacturing companies provided there is an assurance of constant power the rest of the working week; this is the same as the Voluntary Load Curtailment Program which was initiated in the Luzon Grid during the Power Crisis in the 1990’s. A whole day a week of non operation is definitely better than having to contend with UNPREDICTABLE DAILY POWER INTERRUPTIONS.

COAL POWER, A LONG TERM SOLUTION

The power crisis that the Mindanao Grid suffered during the first half of the year 2010, could have actually started hitting the island in the year 2007, had not the 210 MW STEAG COAL POWER PLANT in Misamis Oriental gone in operation in the last quarter of 2006.

There is no question that Coal Power affects the environment, but there is no dispute to the effect that ALL Power Plants, whether Renewable or not has an effect to the environment, whether directly or indirectly

There is no other option for now, but to go Coal to avert another debilitating power crisis as critical as we had LAST year.

With the new technology adopted ( Circulating Fluidized Bed ), the problem of air pollution has been mitigated, this CFB technology is similar to the Cyclone Dust Collector which was required to be installed in manufacturing companies in the early 1980’s to address the smoke, ash and related emissions then.

Update on Davao Light's Monthly Rate Schedule for September..

There's a little bit of good news for Davao Light and Power Company power
consumers. The onset of the rainy/wet season which virtually filled up the
hydro plants capacity has greatly offset the PBR related increase in the
Distribution Charges of Davao Light and Power Company.

The total kwh increase over the August 2010 billing month is just an average
of 30 centavos per kwh for secondary customers and just about P 100/KW for
load customers.

This compares to the ERC Mandated Refund by the NGCP to Mindanao power consumers
for the billing month of July ( reflected on the consumer bills August 2010 ) of
P 229.10/KW.

Let us pray for the full normalization of the level in the Lanao and Bukidnon
watershed areas, so that the fuel-fed plants will have minimal use.

SEMA Power Outage Explanation ( August 24, 2010 )

The total power outage the whole Davao Region ( SEMA )
experienced yesterday at around 5.30 pm was caused by
a fault in the Kibawe Maramag line, according to the
NGCP last night.

This is a normal occurrence if the reserves are thin
to cover the start-up current required when the load
starts to peak up.

There should be proper coordination between load customers
and NGCP to avert future incidents of this kind.

The author is available anytime to meet indutry leaders\
to explain this phenomena and other vital matters.

DAVAO LIGHT AND POWER COMPANY'S INCREASE TEMPERED BY NGCP DECREASE

Yes, Davao Light and Power Company Increased its Distribution Charges
by 29.58 centavos for residential customers effective August 2010 Billing.

However, the NGCP was ordered by ERC to Credit Back P 229.10/ KW it
charged MINDANAO Consumers last February and March 2010.

Hence the marked decrease in the TOTAL POWER COST

It's almost August, get ready to tighten belts as Distribution Rates of DLPC go up.

It is almost August, 2010.

WE DLPC COSTUMERS SHOULD TIGHTEN BELTS AS DLPC IS SLATED TO
IMPLEMENT THE ERC APPROVED PBR RATES OF DLPC, to the tune
of P 0.30 per kwh.


The author is still recovering from the Dengue Attack which
affected him and his 3 kids.

DLPC May 2010 and projected July Rates

For lack of material time and finances, please wait for a few
days for the final post.

King Cobra's getting visible... signs of an earthquake

This blog is in reaction to the reported sightings of King Cobras in Mati Davao Oriental.


If you read my earlier posts, there is ample time to conduct emergency drills all over the
Island of Mindanao, specially the major cities.

Unusual animal behavior such as these report incidents are portents of a magnitude 8
quake to happen within two weeks.

Of course we do have to PRAY that these events will not come to pass and compound
our problems in electric power.